As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2024, the market has managed to continue to climb, even with headwinds such as geopolitical conflicts and elevated interest rates still prevalent features in the daily newsfeed. Although investors remain concerned about prices at the grocery store, one worry overrides all others: the election. According to a recent investor survey by Janus Henderson, over 78% of investors cite the election as their biggest worry in 2024.

In the ever-evolving landscape of the financial sector, the significance of community banks has proven to be stable and resilient. Community banks have not only weathered the storm, but have emerged as pillars of strength and reliability, retaining deposits, and securing trust amidst times of uncertainty. Canandaigua National Bank & Trust (CNB) is no exception and remains well capitalized and well positioned to continue to serve our customers and community.

2023 began with a hangover of sorts with the same troubles that plagued the market last year. But how has the situation changed year to date? In this inaugural episode in our series quarterly market updates, Brian J. Murphy, CIMA® Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist joins Laurie Haelen, AIF®, Senior Vice President, Director of Wealth Solutions to discuss various aspects of financial markets over the past quarter as well as the current market climate. We’ll address inflation’s impact on the economy, the current labor market, valuations, possible opportunities with fixed income, and the importance of focusing on long term goals during times of market uncertainty.

Matching assets with liabilities is one of the prudent rules of banking. The failure to do that led to such financial crises as the Savings & Loan collapse of the 1980s and it surfaced again when a little-known, yet financially prominent California bank collapsed last month, sharply shifting economic fortunes and central bank policy.

The reigniting of inflation to its highest levels in over four decades has been the catalyst for the dramatic sell-off in stock and bond markets for the past year. Inflationary pressures began building in early 2021 as the result of several factors: revived consumer demand in the aftermath of the COVID shutdowns; supply chain disruptions from multiple sources; and the excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus from multiple COVID rescue plans implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Federal government.

Equity markets fell last week following a hotter than expected inflation report. The S&P 500 was down over 4% on Tuesday alone, and off 4.7% for the week. Additionally, bond prices fell as yields rose with the 1-year Treasury topping 4% at one point late in the week.

With Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracting for a second consecutive quarter in Q222, the U.S. economy has technically entered a recession, although many political figures would have us believe otherwise. If we’re not in “recession” already, we (likely) soon will be – financial markets have essentially told us so. Financial markets are almost always ahead of reality, in terms of discounting future earnings, directional moves in interest rates and even seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand. The last 6-12 months have been no exception, with nearly all parts of the market having sold off considerably. Domestic and international stocks are down 19-33%, bonds are down almost 17% and, more recently, even commodities are off approximately 20% from their highs. With respect to the equity market at least, drawdowns of 20% or more like this usually presage recession.

The first half of 2022 proved to be a reminder to investors of the unpredictable nature of investing. While markets weathered the COVID pandemic and its economic and humanitarian damage with surprising resiliency, they seem less able to adapt to the current issues around inflation. Investors certainly knew coming into the year that interest rates would be on the rise in an effort to quell higher prices, but no one anticipated how aggressive the Fed would become after sitting on its hands through 2021. In the Fed’s defense, China’s zero-tolerance policy on COVID has caused continued supply chain issues, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy and other commodity prices skyrocketing, both giving inflation an unexpected tailwind. Either way, markets, both equity and fixed income, have not reacted kindly to the new stance and the Fed’s three increases totaling 1.5%. This puts rates well ahead of what was the original year-end estimate, with more rate hikes to come. So where do we go from here?

Well, it’s official – we’re now in a bear market! Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (a proxy for large U.S. companies), have fallen by more than 20% from their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (almost half represented by technology companies) and the Russell 2000 Index (a proxy for small, U.S. companies) have both fallen by more than 30% from their respective highs. Even bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and generally considered a safer type of investment, are down by more than 13% from their recent peaks. Right or wrong, markets have priced in a recession, very few things are working for investors, and it’s easy to understand why many people are feeling a sense of despair. It’s also the exact time when investors need to be reminded of the Golden Rule – sell high and buy low.

Equity markets sold-off on Friday, following a disappointing Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that showed headline inflation picked up last month, and that selloff continued through Monday. CPI was reported at 8.6% year-over-year, higher than last month’s 8.3% increase, and ahead of expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in slightly ahead of estimates at 6.0%, but that was down from 6.2% in April.

If you’re in your 50s, o.k. early 50s, you probably remember a time when a gallon of gas cost less than a dollar, when a gum ball cost a penny and when a giant shopping cart of groceries cost less than $100 – ah, the good old days. Today, gas is over $4 a gallon, a gum ball costs a quarter and your hundred dollars probably buys you half a cart of groceries, if you’re lucky. That’s inflation folks and it can become more pervasive when governments implement poor policies, when input costs rise, and when demand exceeds supply.

After a sizzling 2021 and a roaring 4th quarter, equity markets began 2022 on a distinct down-note. Recovery from the COVID pandemic provided blue skies for two years of solid equity gains, but storm clouds were brewing on the horizon. Increased inflation caused interest rates to drift higher during the fourth quarter of 2021, and that rise began to accelerate in the new year, precipitating a sharp decline in equities, even before any official rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Adding to the downdraft was a slump in economic activity from a resurgent COVID virus around the world, and then the onset of war in Europe as Russia invaded Ukraine. By their mid-March lows, the S&P 500 had entered correction territory with a decline of over 10%, and the NASDAQ Composite was in a bear market with a decline of more than 20% from its high.

The year 2021 saw a significant rebound in economic growth propelling real GDP above its pre-pandemic level. Equity markets followed along, making new highs throughout the year as corporate earnings continued their recovery. While the final numbers aren’t in yet, the expectation is that U.S. GDP grew at roughly 5.6%1 in 2021 and will likely carry that momentum into the first half of 2022 before slowing down later in the year. Not surprisingly, the primary driver of economic growth was the U.S. consumer who unleashed a wave of spending fueled by government stimulus payments, increased savings rates, and pent-up demand following 2020’s lockdowns.

Equity markets are down again today, after rebounding yesterday from Friday’s steep sell-off. Friday’s 2.5% drop took place as investors dealt with the news of another coronavirus variant labeled Omicron. The variant was originally reported in South Africa and has now been detected in other countries across the globe. This comes as some regions are still dealing with increased infection rates from the Delta variant.

Inflation seems to be top of mind lately, garnering the attention of economists, political pundits, business owners and laymen alike – but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured, what’s considered to be normal, and how high is it now? Also, what’s been causing prices to rise, how does the Federal Reserve Bank feel about recent inflationary trends, and what’s the bond market suggesting about the short-term or long-term nature of these trends?